In the pre-dawn hours today, a record 40,000 tourists gathered in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to await a highly anticipated annual weather forecast. [1] Christian makes fun of me whenever I watch live coverage of the festivities associated with Phil’s weather prognostication, but I have explained to him on multiple occasions that it has its roots in centuries of celebrations marking the halfway point of winter. Plus, the groundhog is adorable (if highly sedated).
Halfway There
Groundhog Day 2024 fell during the first in-person week of my Climate Lab program. [2] Sixteen fellows from 12 countries gathered in Honolulu, and most of them were dumbfounded when I shared the headline about Phil predicting an early spring. My intent was to make a joke about how we’ll likely be seeing many more such predictions in the future as a result of climate change, but the joke was largely lost by nature of the fact that many in my cohort were unaware that people in the United States actually get up before dawn to witness a groundhog predict the weather.
Image credit: [3]
To be fair, the countries represented in that program were largely located in or near the Pacific Ocean, and the traditions that inspired Groundhog Day specifically are largely European. However, there are holidays around the northern hemisphere that mark this early February mid-point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. Long-time readers of this blog know that I experience seasonal depression, [4] which is why I milk the winter holidays – whichever winter holidays – for as much joy as I can.
Notably the most fun of any of these seasonal festivities is Setsubun in Japan, which also takes place during the first few days of February. It is not a weather prediction event but rather a time to cast out bad luck and welcome good luck for the coming year. [5] When I lived in Japan, I was able to help with this process at our local middle school – I got to throw beans at one of my worst behaved (and favorite) students, who was dressed as a demon. A fun time was had by all – and during a time of year when it is sorely needed.
Seeds of Spring
The European holidays that converge on this day begin with the Celtic celebration of Imbolc, which served to honor Brigid, the goddess of milk, fire, home, and babies. Traditions associated with the holiday include cleaning the house, pouring milk on the ground, and burning candles or bonfires (including holiday greens). Over time and with Christian influence, Brigid became St. Brigid (or Bridget), patron saint of Irish nuns, newborns, midwives, dairy maids, and cattle. [6]
It is also the day Jesus was presented at the temple, 40 days after his birth, assuming he was born on December 25, just after the Celtic holiday of Yule (which takes place on the Winter Solstice). According to some accounts, the Church, hoping to do away with the more pagan activities associated with Imbolc / St. Brigid’s Day, pushed a transition toward the Feast of the Purification of the Blessed Virgin Mary, or Candlemas. [7] If that account is accurate, transition was probably made easier through the retention of certain aspects of the original holiday, notably the focus on a holy female figure and the practice of lighting candles.
Candlemas marks the end of the Christmas season and the day by which you are supposed to have all of your holiday greens out of the house in order to avoid bad luck – or, in my case, to avoid a divorce. [8] I typically dread the end of Christmas because it means that I have to trudge through the dreary days of winter without lights and beautiful decorations. But I do have to say that as I undecorated my vaguely brown Christmas tree yesterday and swept up the piles of needles left behind, I felt an uncharacteristic motivation to clean house and an optimism around the changing seasons. The weather may have had something to do with that, as it was warm and sunny.
Listening to Nature
Because Imbolc is the halfway point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox, it’s a time when we can actually start to see changes in how much daylight we get each day and how animals behave. And because knowing the halfway point of winter was critical in the days before grocery stores, there were practices around this time to try to assess what the remainder of winter would be like (because that would impact the consumption of food that was left in reserve). One common saying advised that if Imbolc was bright and sunny, it was a chance to gather more firewood for a longer winter, while a dark and dreary day meant there was no need to gather more because winter would soon be over. [9]
Image credit: [10]
Similarly, people looked to animal behavior, particularly hibernating animals, such as the bear in France and the badger in Germany to give an indication of coming weather: the animals’ wisdom would lead them to venture out and take advantage of an early spring or to go back to bed for an extended winter. When German settlers landed in Pennsylvania and found no badgers here, the groundhog served as a substitute – and the reason the groundhog would hunker down for another six weeks is if the day in question was bright enough for him to see his shadow. Being less familiar with Native American traditions myself, I was interested to read that “some Native Americans see the groundhog as an intermediary between mother earth and father sky because they spend half their life underground and then emerge, rise up into the sun’s light, and whistle like an eagle.” [11]
I personally have never been quite sure as to how Phil can assess the weather before the sun is properly up or how he can fail to see his shadow amid the flood of lighting equipment. The thing that many find ridiculous about the Groundhog Day traditions at Gobbler’s Knob is the formality of Phil’s “Inner Circle,” clad in winter coats and top hats, waiting to hear the news straight from the rodent’s mouth. It is more interesting to me that on this day of Imbolc / St. Brigid’s Day / Candlemas, a day that at least echoes aspects of the Divine Feminine in multiple traditions, what we get up to watch on the news is a bunch of old white men. And maybe it’s the men who are getting the predictions wrong. For years people have blamed Phil for his low accuracy rate in his forecasts (indeed, a coin flip might provide better odds), [12] but maybe the issue lies with translation.
Full Circle
In all seriousness, though, Phil’s predictions aside, we are living in a world that is on a trend to see more extreme and unpredictable weather over time. Recent decisions at the federal level in the United States will ramp up domestic oil and gas production (despite the record drilling we saw under Biden), speed up permitting for energy development (possibly circumventing protections for endangered species), revoke support for renewable energy technologies, eliminate environmental justice considerations, and pull us back out of the Paris Climate Agreement. [13] The implications of these decisions will ripple outward around the globe and forward into the future with long-term (and in some cases irreparable) consequences to people, animals, and ecosystems.
Image credit: unknown source from Facebook feed many years ago
This Groundhog Day / Imbolc / Candlemas / Setsubun, I’m thinking about the need to reconnect with the environment, listen to what it’s trying to tell us, and take appropriate actions to protect our precious world – the only one we have. I’m thinking about the need to clean house and say goodbye to the bad things that are weighing us down, whether it’s habits, perspectives, or people. I’m thinking about the vital role of hope during dark days and the certainty that spring will return, a perspective based not blind optimism, but hope.
I have always found comfort in the cycle of Celtic holidays, marking the unfailing progression through the seasons. It’s that cyclical pattern that reminds me that, even on the darkest day of the year, the days will once again get longer. Certainly, knowledge that spring will come won’t do you much good if you don’t have enough food or firewood to make it through – I understand that. What I’m talking about is not a silent expectation that things will improve with time, but rather the essential hope that your efforts will make a difference – because that’s where we are right now: we cannot afford to lose hope, nor can we afford to do nothing.
So with that, I wish you some hope during these dark days (with more to come, if the news is any indication) and some opportunities to reconnect with nature, listen to it, and consider what you can do to help bring about brighter days ahead.
Thank you for reading.
[1] https://www.news10.com/news/national/groundhog-day-2025-punxsutawney-phil-sees-his-shadow/
[2] https://radicalmoderate.online/tag/climate-lab/
[3] https://rhythmsofplay.com/imbolc-traditions-and-celebration-ideas/
[4] https://radicalmoderate.online/fighting-sad-with-blt/
[5] https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2285.html
[6] https://www.bpl.org/blogs/post/the-origins-and-practices-of-holidays-imbolc-setsubun-lunar-new-year/
[7] https://irishmyths.com/2022/02/01/what-is-imbolc/
[9] https://earthsanctuaries.net/celebrating-imbolc-a-time-for-healing/
[10] https://www.wtae.com/article/punxsutawney-phil-accurate-prediction/63587819
[11] https://earthsanctuaries.net/celebrating-imbolc-a-time-for-healing/
[12] https://www.morrisanimalfoundation.org/article/humble-groundhog-good-predicting-winter-weather
0 Comments